The path of history branches off into infinite possibilities and permutations, which in turn build off each other, branching out ever further. Power, being the greatest force for influencing human society, imbues those who wield it with disproportionate influence that affects the nexus of human history, by controlling the direction into which it branches — be it human flourishing or misery. Given the enormous stakes of the decisions of the powerful, most of those in power, accompanied by teams of expert strategists, make decisions based upon carefully considered plans; with few exceptions (including the infamously erratic Roman Emperor Nero, who set fire to his own city), plans are the root of nearly all leaders’ actions. Thus, even when the powerful make mistakes, those mistakes are almost always born of plans. Distinguishing between the plans of the powerful and their mistakes, therefore, creates a false dichotomy. The mistakes of the powerful are direct products of their plans; their plans and mistakes are causally linked. Despite the coupling of these two ideas, only some leaders’ plans produce mistakes, whereas all plans produce impacts. This paper will argue that because their mistakes only comprise a fraction of the effects of the actions of those in power, the plans of the powerful more heavily impact history as we know it through consequences both foreseen and unforeseen, and chain reactions of events.

The intentions of the powerful are expressed by the plans they formulate, but when these plans fail, they often reveal themselves to be mistakes through their consequences. A prime example of such a mistake is the ultimatum Austria-Hungary issued to Serbia following the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the Austro-Hungarian heir. The Austro-Hungarian Council of Ministers intended to hold Serbia accountable for the assassination with a quick settlement, and preferred taking military action rather than engaging in a peaceful diplomatic exchange with Serbia after Serbia’s rejection of Austria-Hungary’s demands (Luigi, 1952, p. 168). As they had hoped, Serbia rejected one of the terms that would have allowed Austrian investigations on Serbian grounds, and when the Austrian foreign minister refused further negotiations, it confirmed Austria-Hungary’s lack of interest in a diplomatic solution (Mutschlechner, n.d.). Even though Austria-Hungary’s consequential declaration of war on Serbia was intended by the council, Austria-Hungary’s diplomatic failure escalated into world war — one of history’s greatest mistakes. The terrible effects of the war are apparent in the statistics of casualties: 21 million wounded and 20 million dead, over half of which were civilian deaths (Mougel, n.d.). Many soldiers who had endured years of terrible conditions in trench warfare were affected psychologically in addition to physically, experiencing extreme forms of post-traumatic stress (U.S. World War I Centennial Commission, n.d.). Although divergent from their intentions, this mistake stemmed from the plans of the Austro-Hungarian leaders, as the former could not exist without the latter. The plans of the Austro-Hungarian government proved violently impactful on the nexus of history, both shattering and creating connections between civilizations.

The snowballing of effects initiated by the plans of those in power can cause their original intentions to get lost, which often creates disastrous consequences that cannot be reversed. Similarly to the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum, the Treaty of Versailles aimed to weaken and hold Germany accountable for the war, this time by forcing Germany to admit responsibility for damage suffered from the war and paying billions in reparations. Lost territory, economic burdens, and humiliation resulted in long-term resentment and nationalism in Germany. This also spurred the rise of Nazism, with the number of votes for the National Socialist German Workers' Party, or the Hitler Movement, jumping from roughly eight hundred-thousand to well over six million in the course of two years (Gonschior, n.d.). The nations involved in the proposal of the Treaty of Versailles failed to see the cataclysmic repercussions of the treaty terms in their plan, as Germany was required to hold both moral and financial responsibility for the destructive war. The rise of Hitler and Nazism in Germany was directly influenced by the snowballing of negative effects caused by the treaty, setting the stage for World War II. The horrifying events of unprecedented mass murder during the Holocaust that came with the rise of Nazism were not intended by those in power, but still came as consequences for their plans.

Unforeseen consequences for the actions of the powerful can dramatically affect the course of history and reveal the mistakes within their plans. As prominently evinced in Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union, a seemingly foolproof plan is able to spark devastating chains of events that lead to unintended outcomes, causing the plans of the powerful to veer off course from the initial intentions. Hitler’s expansionist plan resulted in unanticipated attacks from the opposing Allied powers, practically making his defeat certain. The initial plan tried to quickly take over the USSR, as seen through the 4.5 million troops sent in the attack, but the arrival of the Russian winter and hundreds of thousands of German casualties further proved the plan faulty, as they had failed to conquer the Soviet Union before the cold (Taylor, 2011). Hitler’s plan only kept the idea of a short-term victory in mind, and neglected the impacts of a protracted war. The invasion of the USSR, a major turning point in World War II, shifted the tide of the war in favor of the Allies with surprise attacks by both the United States and Russia. In a letter from Colonel-General Guderian to his wife, he admitted, “We have seriously underestimated the Russians, the extent of their country and the treachery of their climate,” (Guderian, 1941). Hitler’s short-sighted plan and the consequential chain of events caused the direction of history to change completely, exposing the plan as a mistake. 

The mistake within the plans of the powerful can also be revealed with the passage of time, causing a different outcome from the intended, a phenomenon embodied by the Evian Conference. What started as an intention to fix the refugee problem arisen by the Holocaust by participating countries, including the United States, turned into expressions of sympathy for the refugees. Fear for American national security prompted President Roosevelt to assert unproven claims that some Jewish refugees came as spies for the Nazis: “It is rather a horrible story, but in some of the other countries that refugees out of Germany have gone to, especially Jewish refugees, they found a number of definitely proven spies,” (Gross, 2015). As a result, thousands of Jews were turned away at American ports as they arrived on boat, most well known being the St. Louis ocean liner, many of whose passengers became victims of the Holocaust (Gross, 2015). Proposed at the Evian Conference, a limited refugee bill that would have provided refuge for thousands of German Jewish children but was turned down after fear of economic burden (United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, n.d.). The plan following the conference remained to limit the number of immigrants, as almost no countries were willing to accept more. The mistakes of this plan could not be seen at the time, but it in reality sent many Jewish refugees to their deaths as those in power overlooked the issues. The plans of the powerful, or lack thereof, are realized to be mistakes with time, often impacting history much more than those in power had intended.

On the other hand, the failure to see the mistakes in the plans of leaders at all can shift the course of history completely. When the opinions of the people are unified, they are able to leave deep imprints on history, as seen in the American Revolution. The British imposition of taxes with the Stamp Act and Townshend Acts on the American colonies, who were not represented in the British Parliament, enraged the colonists. Public perception of British rule became increasingly negative during the time leading up to the war, yet British leaders still failed to both see and fix the flaws in their plan. The combined opinion of the people was voiced through the writings of political activists, such as Thomas Paine’s Common Sense, which expressed the need for colonial independence (Paine, 1776). The collective negative public perception of British rule directly led to the American Revolution, effectively and dramatically changing the course of history by shifting balances in power. The plan of the British government for raising money was a mistake overlooked by those in power, leading to American independence from Britain, effectively reshaping the nexus of history with the transformation of international relations.

Despite the impact of mistakes, each of these events were ultimately most greatly impacted by the plans of the powerful. Leaders’ plans are what build the foundation for the nexus of history, creating the series of events and international connections woven throughout. These plans forge new paths that often cannot be foretold due to the snowball effect of events, and resulting unintended consequences. Mistakes are born from these plans, as people realize the flaws in the plans themselves. However, the term “mistake” is subjective. The point of view from which a person views a leader’s plan determines their perspective on whether or not the action is actually a mistake. Where one person sees a disaster for humanity, another opposing view may believe that its means justified its intended ends, regardless of whether or not they were successful or produced the effects on history that they had hoped for.